A Frugal Family’s Journey

At this aspect, I’m not too sure what to make of the housing marketplace and the direction is it headed. With all the recent rate hike by the Feds earlier this month, future mortgage rates will be impacted. Having said that, I am pleased we’ve a fixed rate mortgage certainly.

I can rest much easier during the night knowing that whatever the Feds do, whether they decide to keep it the same or continue increasing rates, my mortgage repayment will never be affected. Right now we aren’t putting any extra money towards the principal given our low 2.875% interest rate.

We believe that we’re able to make our money grow faster by trading it even though keeping the money more liquid. At a certain point, maybe in 8-10 years, we may consider using money from our investment accounts to wipe out the rest of the mortgage balance. Until then, we will continue steadily to grow that money outside, than have it locked into our home rather.

1 – We’re able to see a modification of 15-20% that could put the united states equity markets back in line with the majority of the graphs above. It would then cost closer to fair value based on the majority of the recent financial data. 2 – The economic data can pop up back.

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Whether it was because of the payroll taxes increase, sequestration, or some other seasonal event(s)… maybe this is/was just a blip on the radar these last couple of months, and the financial data will “catch up” to the US equity marketplaces. 1. An authentic base case assumption though, is a combination of the two. I am anticipating a good 10% modification combined with a little pickup in a few of the macro data.

Either way, something’s gotta give. The amount of divergence here is bordering historical, and the relative and absolute over-valuation of some of these high-yield names are frightening. With Europe mired in recession, commodity markets signaling that Chinese growth is stalling, the US is once holding up the world again. If the American economy is supporting the world, then how come US equity performance faltering against global equities?

The chart below shows the comparative performance of SPY against ACWI (All-Country World Index). If we are indeed seeing a start of a fresh secular bull, shouldn’t the united states, which includes been the beneficiary of the “beautiful deleveraging”, be leading? While I have defined my bias for the bear case, investing is approximately probabilities and I honestly don’t know how this market is going to solve itself.

While the bear case is persuasive, Street cash flow and revenue quotes continue steadily to get revised upwards (according to Ed Yardeni). Until some kind sometimes appears by us of negative macro surprise that cause quotes to get modified downwards, the currency markets is likely to grind higher. As I had written last week, there is absolutely no catalyst yet for a bearish impulse for stocks yet. Cam Hui is a portfolio manager at Qwest Investment Fund Management Ltd. This article is made by Mr. Hui as an outside business activity.

As such, Qwest does not review or approve materials offered herein. The opinions and any suggestions expressed in this blog are those of the writer , nor reflect the views or suggestions of Qwest. None of the information or opinions expressed in this blog takes its solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other device. Nothing in this article constitutes investment advice and any recommendations which may be contained herein have never been based on considered of the investment goals, financial situation or particular needs of any specific receiver. Any purchase or sale activity in virtually any securities or other device should be based upon your own analysis and conclusions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Either Mr or Qwest. Hui may hold or control long or short positions in the equipment or securities stated.

326 million. So what is normal here? This is the problem with valuing businesses. AUM and FRE is continuing to grow before few years, but is that because of the financial crisis and many great opportunities, or is the AUM trending upwards on a secular basis for the long term?