What Do WE REALIZE About Investment Under Uncertainty?

Recent theoretical advancements relating to investment under doubt have highlighted the need for irreversibility for the timing of investment expenditures and their expected returns. This has subsequently stimulated a growing empirical literature which examines doubt and threshold effects on investment behavior. This paper presents a review of the books. A variety of methods have been used to investigate the empirical implication of irreversibility in investment, the majority focusing on the partnership between investment flows and proxy measures of uncertainty.

A general conclusion is that increased doubt, at both disaggregate and aggregate levels, leads to lessen investment rates. This suggests that there can be an irreversibility effect, under which higher uncertainty raises the value of the ‘call option’ to delay a commitment to investment. This impact appears to dominate any positive impact on investment due to the fact that greater doubt, under certain circumstances, increases the marginal success of capital. The methods used increase lots of issues which call into question the reliability of the findings, and these are tackled in the paper. However, if such irreversibility results are present, then their omission from traditional investment models casts question on the effectiveness of such specs.

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